This Traditionally Red State Is Going Blue, New Poll Shows

Remember back in May when Donald Trump said he’d make California, New York and Maryland compatible (and that he’d win them)? Well it’s now mid-October and he can barely hang on to red states Utah, Georgia, Arizona and even Texas — the latest poll out of the Lone Star state has him leading by three points. Romney won Texas by 19 points in 2012.

There is one state in particular that is leaning towards Hillary Clinton — Arizona.

The Grand Canyon state, home to Sheriff Joe Arpaio, Jan Brewer, and the god-awful SB 1070, should be a dead set win for Trump, whose anti-immigration rhetoric has propelled him to where he is today. However, recent polling out of the state suggests that Clinton has the upper hand, and for good reason.

According to a new Arizona Republic/Morrison/Cronkite News poll released just before the third presidential debate, Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump by five points, 39-34 percent. Gary Johnson took six percent while Jill Stein took one percent. Twenty percent remain undecided.

However, when pressed on how those who “lean” one way or the other would solidly vote, as of right now, both Clinton and Trump expand their lead:

When including “leaners” in the sample, the number of undecideds drops to 8.1 percent. Clinton’s support rises to 43.3 percent while Trump’s support increases to 37.8 percent. Johnson gets 6.5 percent while Stein gets 4.3 percent. The margin of error for the sample including the leaners is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight general election projection, Clinton has a 58 percent chance of winning Arizona’s 11 electoral votes, compared to Trump’s 42 percent chance. In the last 48 polls conducted in the state, Clinton holds the edge in 26, Trump in 19, and a tie in three.

It is because of these shocking poll results that the Clinton campaign is pumping more than $2 million in advertising in the state and sending a slew of high profile surrogates — including First Lady Michelle Obama and Senator Bernie Sanders — all across the state.

The last time Arizona went blue was in 1996, when voters chose Bill Clinton over Senator Bob Dole by 2 percent.

Imagine if Arizona, a state most affected by illegal immigration, stuck it to Trump on election day? Arizona is proving to have a rich, culturally diverse electorate, buoyed by Latino and Hispanic voters who don’t take too kindly to Trump’s xenophobic, racist tones.

Ana Navarro was right – if Trump thought insulting Mexicans and Hispanics was the right move, he’s going to have one hell of a wake up call in November.


Featured image via Alex Wong/Getty Images