The GOP didn’t panic when a poll conducted earlier this year showed that Utah might vote for the Democratic candidate in November in order to avoid electing Donald Trump. However, they might want to start showing a little concern now, because two new polls show something similar for two more strongly red states. Arizona and Georgia, which tend to vote red in presidential elections, are showing signs that they, too, would turn blue before they’d vote for Trump.
Donald Trump has long claimed that he’s going to win states that typically vote blue in presidential elections, which would rewrite the electoral map, at least for 2016. Georgia and Arizona, however, don’t like his misogynistic statements about women or his racist, hardline comments and unworkable policies against immigrants (Utah just plain can’t stand him).
So can he rewrite the electoral map? Sure, but not necessarily in his favor. In Georgia, Trump leads Hillary by just four points, which is within that poll’s margin of error. In other words, they’re in a statistical tie there. Georgia has voted Republican in every presidential election for the last 20 years, but they’re making themselves into an example of the disdain many feel for Trump’s fitness to lead a nation.
Over in Arizona, Trump leads Hillary by just two points, influenced by a huge “Never Trump” movement among Republicans there. If Trump can unite the party, he’ll probably win Arizona, but for now, it’s not looking good for him (and it’s looking just terrible for John McCain in the Senate, too. The horror).
Trump and his campaign think that his appeal among white, blue collar workers are what will put traditionally blue states back into play for Republicans, creating a ton of new swing states that haven’t existed for a long time.
They’re totally ignoring the fact that this goes both ways, though – they’ve already made three red states look at the color blue with new appreciation. Some Republican strategists are pointing out that his polarizing rhetoric, which is alienating women and minorities, will make him struggle in a lot more Republican states.
In fact, there is really only one way he’ll gather enough electoral votes to win the White House. Hillary has a much wider path than our dear Mr. Trump has.
It’s not likely that Arizona and Georgia, to say nothing of Utah, will be the only three of these states to start leaning away from Trump. Former Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell said:
“With Donald Trump, I think he’ll have the ability to turn some working class, blue-collar Democrats – the so-called Reagan Democrats – he’ll have the ability to get them to switch over. The question is, are there Republican moderates that will switch over to Secretary Clinton or Bernie Sanders? For every one blue collar worker that Donald Trump picks up, he has the potential to lose one or more suburban Republican moderate to come over and vote for our side.”
There are actually a lot of those moderates who won’t vote for Trump, as noted above. Arizona and Georgia are now key states, along with Utah and many others. Trump might be crowing over his success in states that have lost a high number of manufacturing jobs, but other states have other issues, and all he’s proving is he might not rewrite the electoral map so much as partially invert it, giving even more states to the Democrats than usual.
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