This Is Why The Supreme Court Is Going To Rule In Favor Of Marriage Equality

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With the Supreme Court set to hear arguments for and against making marriage equality the law of the land, there’s been a lot of analysis, most of it legal, all of it pointless:

Constitutional lawyers, however, are confident enough in the imminent future of nationwide marriage equality to insist that anything less would require an extraordinarily complex – even unprecedented – reading in stark contrast with the court’s recent history and occasionally overt political leanings.

Between the clever way the cases have been set up and the overwhelming pressure to answer to public demand, the end of state gay marriage bans is not just inevitable, court watchers say – the nine justices may be left with no other choice.

The idea here is that ruling against same-sex marriage would require the conservative justices (who else would it be?) to rule against state-sanctioned marriage in general and/or deny that the LGBT community is protected by the 14th Amendment.

But if John Roberts and the other right-wing lunatics on the SCOTUS want to rule against marriage equality while claiming it doesn’t affect gays or marriage, they will. This is the same court that handed down a ludicrously narrow ruling in order to give George W. Bush the presidency. This is the same five conservative “champions” of state’s rights that overruled the laws of Florida for the express purpose of stopping a perfectly legal and completely reasonable recount. Legal precedent means absolutely nothing to them. Logic and reality mean absolutely nothing to them. This is possibly the most partisan and politically motivated court in American history.

And that is why the Supreme Court will vote to make marriage equality the law of the land.

That might seem counter-intuitive at first. Wouldn’t the conservatives on the bench support Republican legislative efforts to make bigotry and hatred into law? Sure, if they thought that would be in the best interest of the Republican Party. Had this case gone to the Court in 2004, they would have leapt at the chance to codify discrimination against the LGBT community with a smile on their faces and a song in their hearts.

But that was then and this is now.

As always, conservatives were on the wrong side of history. Right now, over 60 percent of the country supports gay rights. Staking your ground as the one who hates homosexuals the most, a necessary strategy for GOP primaries, is becoming a crippling blow in general elections. Just like the average American recoiled from open racism against blacks, they’re now recoiling from open anti-gay bigotry. Even Corporate America has decided that bigotry is bad for business as Indiana’s Republican governor, Mike Pence, found out when he tried to make it legal to discriminate against homosexuals.

Any and every Republican not in a blood-red gerrymandered district that openly espouses anti-gay views is putting himself at risk. Marriage equality has become a cudgel for liberals and Democrats to bash Republicans with. But at the same time, if Republicans drop the crusade against The Gay, their hate-filled base will destroy them. If the Supreme Court rules against marriage equality, Republicans MUST keep fighting that battle and it will cost them in the general elections.

If, on the other hand, the SCOTUS makes marriage equality and LGBT rights the law of the land, Republicans can drop the issue and blame the Court. It’s that simple. Scalia will put up the token stink about it and that will be it. Republicans will still make some noise for an election or two but they’ll quietly drop it in purple states because the issue is a loser.

It’s also worth noting that the Court will not strike down the subsidies for Obamacare for the exact same reason: It would be a disaster for Republicans. The fix to the bill would be simple but Republicans won’t be able to do it because their base would, again, flay them alive. Millions of people would lose their insurance and everyone would blame Republicans for not passing the simple fix. Rock, meet hard place. It would be an electoral disaster going into the 2016 election cycle. There is no chance of the conservatives on the Court handing such a potent weapon to Democrats.

Usually, we can rely on the conservative wing of the Supreme Court to against the best interests of the American public but in these two instances, they really don’t have a choice but to do what’s best for the country. Oh, how that must sting their egos.

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