GOPrimary

We here at addictinginfo spend a lot of time attacking the GOP candidates- and with good reason.  None of the current field, nor any Republican Candidate is a viable alternative to Barack Obama if we want to have a good future for our society.  On the flip side, haven’t we had enough rhetoric?  Anyone can point at Mitt Romney and ask how he went from pro-choice to pro-life.  We can all point at the entire field and ask why they’re all in favor a constitutional amendment that redefines marriage as between a man and a woman- and yet they’re still in the state’s rights party, if you can call it that.   So what is, exactly, going on the GOP primary?  How’re the important candidates doing?  And why should we care?

Mitt Romney

Let’s start with the front-runner and the undisguised head of the pack by any standards.  The facts of the Romney campaign, in a nutshell, is that he is raising the most money and is polling near the best.  Romney is the unlikely second-place candidate in South Carolina- the same state he came fourth in last cycle.  SC looks at Romney like everything they despise about their own party- he’s well-educated, a northerner, and what passes for an intellectual in the GOP of today, and yet he is only one percent behind Cain in the polls there.  Since we all know where Herman Cain’s campaign is headed, well, let’s just paraphrase an anonymous fundraiser quoted by CNN:  Romney is going to win in South Carolina by coming out on top of a 0-0 soccer match.   It should come as no surprise that Romney is polling number one in New Hampshire.  He has a twenty-five point advantage over…..oh, that’s right, second place. Romney is polling in NH with something in the ballpark of 43%, which is a huge number compared to the eighteen percent Cain has.  In other polls, Romney and Cain are back and forth, both generally within one or two points of each other, or tied in Pennsylvania.

Herman Cain

Well, what an exciting two weeks Herman Cain has had.  First, I’d like to offer him so advice; although I’ve never run for office, I know for a fact that as soon as you become the front-runner, you are immediately a target!  The moral of the story is, of course, don’t do anything asinine, such as, say, (allegedly) sexually harass a number of women!  Revolutionary tip, right? Although Herman Cain has now made himself unelectable, he is still doing pretty well for himself.  Cain leads in Iowa, South Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.  These are some of the key states for winning both the primary and the general election, come November of next year.  On the national scale too, Herman Cain is the man to beat: he finds himself polling four percent above the second-place, Romney, although Gallup has the pair tied at 21%.  So why do I say that Romney is the front-runner?  Well………allegations and what not.


Newt Gingrich

Hey, wait a second!  I thought you said important candidates!  Yup, that’s right!  Gingrich is now an important candidate. moving up steadily, mostly in response to phenomenal debate performances.  I don’t throw that around lightly. Compared to Newt Gingrich, the rest of the GOP Candidates are intellectual lightweights.  Gingrich on stage in a debate is like listening to an encyclopedia argue with someone.  Gingrich knows what to say and when to say it, and when combined with his fiery anti-media rhetoric and his long experience sparring with Democrats, Gingrich is a crowd favorite and a dangerous contender.   Gingrich is getting good poll numbers from Gallup, too.  According to the organization, he is supported by 12% of polled Republican Primary Voters.   Among those that recognize his name (his name recognition, by the way, is above 80%), he is strongly favored by 19%, favored by 45%, disfavored by 22% and, stunningly for a man of his long career, strong opposed by only 5%- the final number is beaten only by Herman Cain’s 3%.

So?

So where does this leave us?  Well, it’s hard to say.  Barack Obama only beats the generic Republican in polls by 1%.  In other words, they are tied.  One percent is well within any realistic margin of error, so it’s hard to make the claim that Obama is winning or losing.  It’s simply too close to call.

Obviously, Mitt Romney is the most electable Republican- polls support this.  Many Democrats despise the former Speaker of the House for his role in the impeachment of Clinton- although this is a topic I would prefer to avoid.   It can be plainly seen that Herman Cain is as dead as Rick Perry.  Although the Republican voters were never going to nominate the man, it was nice to see them pretend to accept someone who isn’t white, even if it was for a while.  Although they still tend to support him despite the allegations, as it draws nearer to the election Cain will either have dropped out or been dropped.

The loss of a second place candidate, sometimes even first, should create an interesting dynamic in the race.  The voters that are currently supporting Cain–the die-hard conservatives that are petrified of Romney’s flip-flops and his history of moderate policy–are going to need to find someone to vote for.  If this election plays out the way they normally do, then many of the lower class of candidates are going to be gone.  Huntsman and Santorum should be gone quite soon, Perry is dead, and Bachmann isn’t even endorsed by the Tea Party anymore. No one honestly believes that we’re going to have a Ron Paul ticket- that leaves only one man to be….. THE ANTI-ROMNEY!

Like the Anti-Christ, only eviler, Newt Gingrich finds himself in the limelight!  The GOP is obviously desperate to find someone to replace Romney.  They tried Bachmann, but she was crazy!  They tried Rick Perry, but he can’t talk!  They begged for Chris Christie, but he refused!  They tried Cain, but he has, uh, problems that need to be sorted out!

If only the GOP hadn’t left Gingrich for last, we might not have to deal with him.  Make no mistake, Gingrich is the smartest GOP candidate.  He’s sharp as a whip and he always, always, always knows what he’s talking about.  Gingrich is good at stirring up the GOP base.  He always has a fact to bash Obama, and he’s always ready to jump at a chance to attack the “Main Stream Media.”  Best of all, even to me- I think that debates between him and Obama would be highly interesting and hysterical -Gingrich has challenged the incumbent to 3-Hour Lincoln Douglas debates.  Gingrich, make no mistake, is not kidding about this, although he softens his stance (and attacks Obama, double win!) by saying he’ll let the President have his teleprompter.

So is this what it comes down to?  Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney?  The two most unlikely front-runners in the history of the GOP?   Well, in my opinion, yes.   What do I predict?  Well, like most people who pay any attention, I would have to lean to Mitt Romney’s side.  Eventually reason has to win out, even in the Teapublican Party, and Newt Gingrich has too long of a history with the American people to be elected.

If you want to tell me I’m a moron, you can find me on Facebook here (http://www.facebook.com/profile.php?id=100002174333319).  Trolls are welcome, I love a good argument!